Make unstable forecasts decision-safe.
Look4Logic helps pharma teams turn hidden forecast logic into explicit scenarios, named events, source-of-business views, and management-ready driver attribution.
The point is not another forecast file. The point is a forecast that can survive review, support ad hoc stress-testing, stay governable between lock cycles, and be promptly refreshed when launch timing, LOE, access, pricing, or competitor action break the old story. The problem is rarely the model itself. The problem is a number nobody can explain. When the number moves, Look4Logic makes the logic explicit, so teams can move from opaque forecast updates to decision-safe review structure explained by market, event, owner, and scenario — without the need to throw away the current model or reporting stack.
Works alongside existing forecast files, Excel or Power BI outputs, and familiar review cycles. The aim is a better decision structure around the forecast, not disruption for its own sake.
Look4Logic, at a glance
Decision-safe forecast
A forecast that can be reviewed, challenged, and defended because the logic is explicit.
Named-event governance
Assumptions are expressed as named events with timing, rationale, ownership, and scenario role.
Source of business
Growth is traced to where demand came from and who lost it, not hidden inside a blended curve.
Management-ready outputs
Scenario comparisons, driver attribution, and management pages that show what moved the number and where the risk or opportunity now sits.
Founder-led in London, Look4Logic combines 15+ years of client-serving forecasting work with 25+ years of broader expertise in pharma, biotech, medtech, and healthcare. The practice leverages proprietary PatientFlow and MarketSimulator engines, current multi-country forecasting cycles in complex markets, and extensive experience across multiple therapeutic areas.
Most forecast processes break in the same places.
The issue is rarely that teams have no model. The issue is that the logic becomes hard to govern when launches move, pricing shifts, access changes, affiliates disagree, or management asks what actually moved the number.
Hidden spreadsheet logic
Critical assumptions live in tabs, comments, or local workarounds instead of a visible assumption structure.
Disconnected assumptions
Diagnosis, access, launch timing, share shifts, and price logic are often updated separately and reconciled late.
Scenario updates are too slow
Teams can build a base case, but alternative futures become a maintenance burden instead of a governed review process.
The delta is hard to explain
Leadership sees the number move, but not the chain of events, assumptions, and market consequences behind the move.
Patient truth and market truth drift apart
Where relevant, reachable demand and competitive capture are mixed together, so growth is confused with redistribution.
Reviews become political
Forecasting, BI, affiliates, and finance can each hold part of the picture without one review-ready decision structure.
Look4Logic does not hide the commercial logic behind the forecast.
Reachable demand
How demand becomes clinically and commercially reachable, rather than assumed as a fixed pool.
Captured demand
How products, classes, or mechanisms capture, defend, lose, or reshape that demand over time.
Source of business
FROM → TO logic that shows who funds growth, whether from outside-of-market inflow, same-class switching, or broader reallocation.
Event-driven market change
Launches, LOE, access shifts, guideline change, erosion, supply, and competitor moves are treated as explicit drivers.
Driver attribution
Teams can see what moved the result, when it moved it, and whether the change came from one event or a bundle of interacting assumptions.
Scenario comparison
Alternative futures are structured as governed scenario sets rather than disconnected spreadsheet copies.
Cross-market consistency
One structure for major assumptions, events, and decision logic across markets instead of many local storylines.
Forecast governance
A disciplined way to track assumptions, ownership, timing, rationale, and refresh cycles when the market changes.
ForecastOps: forecast governance for decision-safe reviews.
ForecastOps is Look4Logic’s term for the operating layer between forecast files and management decisions. In plain English: it is the structure that turns a forecast from a number into a review-ready decision system.
What ForecastOps is
- A forecast-governance layer around live market decisions
- Managed scenario architecture for launch, access, LOE, and portfolio reviews
- Named-event governance so assumptions can be tracked, challenged, and revised
- Source-of-business and driver-attribution logic that explains what moved the forecast
- Review-ready outputs for affiliate, franchise, forecasting, and management discussion
- Rolling refresh when the market changes
At glance, with ForecastOps
- Assumptions become explicit
- Events are named and owned
- Scenarios are structured and comparable
- Source-of-business logic is visible
- Changes promptly applied as the market moves
- Management gets a clean bridge from last lock to current view
- It does not ask you to throw away the current model.
- It does not ask you to buy into a long software rollout.
- It does not compete with BI on reporting.
Decision-safe forecast
A forecast with visible assumptions, named drivers, and a clear bridge from old number to new number.
Managed scenario architecture
A governed scenario set built around explicit events, not one-off edits and disconnected tabs.
Review-ready forecast system
A working structure that makes the forecast legible to forecasting, leadership, finance, and downstream reporting teams.
Concrete outputs that fit existing workflows.
Even when the underlying model stays where it is, Look4Logic can publish a working decision layer around it — designed for review rooms, forecast cycles, independent challenge, and rolling refresh.
Named assumption and event register
Event name, rationale, timing, ownership, evidence, and scenario role in one visible structure.
Scenario pack
Base, upside, downside, disruption, or client-defined scenario sets that can be challenged coherently.
Source-of-business view
A visible answer to where growth came from and who lost volume, share, units, or value to fund it.
Driver attribution
A structured explanation of what moved the forecast, when it moved, and which events matter most.
Management bridge
A clean page connecting last lock, current view, disputed assumptions, and a decision-safe base case.
Familiar output surfaces
Pack-ready Excel, PDF, and dashboard-friendly outputs that drop into existing reporting environments.
A practical working sequence.
1. Frame the live decision
Define the review moment, audit need, stress-test question, disputed markets, material events, and sponsor question.
2. Make the logic explicit
Turn hidden assumptions into named events, pathway logic, source-of-business structures, and scenario sets.
3. Govern the scenarios
Build a review-safe base, downside, upside, or disruption structure with ownership and rationale.
4. Publish the management view
Deliver a decision pack that shows what moved, where it moved, why it moved, and what should be treated as base versus risk.
Under the hood: two complementary engines.
Look4Logic uses two complementary engines. Used together, they separate patient truth from market truth and reconcile both when the forecast needs to explain more than a single curve.
PatientFlow
Demand architecture and pathway truth.
PatientFlow makes demand formation explicit. It turns the patient journey into a live, computable model of how patients move through diagnosis, eligibility, access, treatment, and commercial translation — so the pathway itself becomes the explanation, not just the output. Instead of hiding assumptions in spreadsheet tabs, it shows where patients are lost, gained, or redirected, and connects those changes to reachable demand, product demand, units, and value through Treatment Baskets.
Used when the key uncertainty is how populations become diagnosed, eligible, treated, and commercially reachable.
MarketSimulator
Competitive architecture and source-of-business logic.
MarketSimulator makes market dynamics explicit. It turns launches, LOE, access shifts, pricing moves, competitor actions, and other named events into a scenario system that shows how demand is captured, defended, lost, or reshaped over time. Rather than collapsing the market into a single forecast line, it makes source-of-business visible, separates price events from volume market-share shift events, and shows which events actually changed the result.
Used when the key uncertainty is who captures demand, from where, at what speed, and with what price and value consequences.
Demand first. Competition second. Use one when the question is narrow. Use both when patient truth and market truth need to reconcile.
Where this is most useful.
Forecast lock and review cycles
When the forecast exists, but the team cannot explain the delta, reconcile disputed assumptions, or defend the number under challenge.
Ad hoc experimentation and stress-testing
When leadership wants to test launch ideas, LOE response, access moves, pricing pressure, portfolio options, or other strategic shocks without disturbing the core model.
Rolling refresh and monitoring
When clinical, regulatory, HTA, access, or competitor changes land between formal planning cycles and the current forecast needs a governed refresh.
Independent forecast audit and challenge
When a team needs an external view on assumption discipline, scenario coherence, source-of-business logic, or whether the current number is safe to take into review.
Launch, LOE, access, and portfolio decisions
When market events are moving faster than the current process can absorb and scenario work needs explicit structure.
Hidden-demand and hybrid cases
When the real question starts with reachable patients and then shifts into competitive capture, mechanism choice, and market evolution.
Keep the forecast. Fix the decision structure around it.
Look4Logic is built for teams that already own a forecast process but need clearer governance, faster scenario cycles, cleaner assumption discipline, and better answers in the review room.
Typical pressure points
- The number moved but the delta is not defensible.
- Scenario updates are slow and politically messy.
- Affiliate, franchise, and management views are hard to reconcile.
- Source of business is buried inside share assumptions.
- The review deck is visible, but the logic behind it is not.
What you get
- Explicit assumption structure
- Named events and scenario governance
- Source-of-business logic
- Driver attribution
- Review-ready management outputs
- A working layer that can sit alongside existing forecast files, Excel or Power BI reporting, and downstream packs
Get a decision structure, not just a number.
Leadership does not need another opaque forecast line. Leadership needs to know how demand is created, who captures it, what changed since the last review, and where the strategic risk now sits.
What becomes clearer
Whether the real risk sits in demand formation, access, class choice, within-market switching, price erosion, or a specific launch or LOE event.
What gets challenged properly
Named assumptions, scenario boundaries, and source-of-business logic instead of one blended number.
What the team can do faster
Compare coherent futures, align around a decision-safe base case, and isolate where upside or downside is actually coming from.
A specialist forecasting and scenario architecture core behind partner work.
Look4Logic can sit behind consulting firms, agencies, HEOR or market-access teams, specialist independents, and data or insight providers that want stronger forecast logic and scenario architecture without pretending to build it all in-house.
Partner fit
- Commercial strategy firms that need a stronger forecasting core behind strategic recommendations
- HEOR, market-access, and evidence teams that need clinically coherent demand architecture
- Data and insight providers that want a more decision-grade simulation layer
- Independent specialists who need a forecasting and scenario core inside a broader client offer
How Look4Logic can work with partners
- White-label or partner-enabled modelling core
- Co-delivery on live client problems, scenario sprints, or governance pilots
- Behind-the-scenes source-of-business, driver-attribution, and management-pack build
- Subcontract forecasting and simulation support where the logic must stand up under challenge
- Low-friction collaboration that lets the partner keep the front-end relationship while Look4Logic strengthens the decision engine underneath
Case Study: ATTR-CM.
Illustrative capability case: ATTR-CM
This case is presented as a capability demonstration built from public market dynamics and documented Look4Logic modelling logic. It is not a disclosed client project and not presented as a literal forward market forecast.
Transthyretin amyloidosis with cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM) has shifted from an under-recognized restrictive or HFpEF-like cardiomyopathy of older adults to a clinically actionable and commercially dynamic disease area, driven by broader awareness, non-invasive diagnostic pathways, and the strategic value of earlier diagnosis and treatment. The market is no longer a single-brand story: tafamidis established the first disease-modifying standard of care, acoramidis added direct stabilizer-class competition, and vutrisiran expanded the market into a second approved mechanism class. The strategic question is therefore no longer only how many patients exist, but how hidden patient pools convert into diagnosed, eligible, and treated demand, and then how that demand is redistributed across mechanisms under real-world access, physician preference, route of administration, and budget constraints. The next wave is likely to intensify that logic further, with additional silencers such as eplontersen and nucresiran still in development, and amyloid-depleter programs such as cliramitug and coramitug pointing toward further market re-segmentation over time.
What the case is designed to show
- Hidden-demand architecture
- Reachable demand versus competitive capture
- Explicit source-of-business logic
- Event impact and driver attribution
- Why patient truth and market truth should be modelled separately and then reconciled
Executive question
How much commercially reachable ATTR-CM demand is unlocked as diagnosis improves, and how is that demand redistributed as the market evolves from a first-in-class transthyretin stabilizer story into a broader multi-mechanism competitive landscape?
Market evolution by mechanism
- Wave 1: Market creation via TTR stabilization
- Wave 2: Competitive broadening via stabilizers plus silencers
- Wave 3: Possible re-segmentation via amyloid depleters
- Longer horizon: additional advanced modalities and sequencing logic
PatientFlow demand architecture
PatientFlow builds the market stepwise from hidden prevalence through clinical suspicion, diagnostic work-up, confirmed disease, commercial eligibility, and treatment-option baskets. Early growth is not just a share story; it is a demand-unlock story.
MarketSimulator competitive view
MarketSimulator then makes the commercial logic explicit: launches, same-class competition, cross-mechanism switching, pricing, access, and source-of-business shifts are treated as named events rather than buried assumptions.
Demand architecture first. Competitive architecture second.
Hidden-demand architecture
ATTR-CM is not a share problem first. It is a demand-formation problem.
PatientFlow builds the market from diagnosis, eligibility, access, and treatment logic so hidden demand becomes auditable before brand competition is applied.
Reachable demand vs competitive capture
First define how much demand becomes reachable. Then model who captures it.
Treatment-option baskets translate pathway logic into commercially meaningful pools; MarketSimulator then tests how stabilizers, silencers, and later waves compete for that demand.
Explicit source-of-business logic
Growth is computed as explicit FROM → TO movement, not buried in share assumptions.
Early tafamidis growth is mainly outside-of-market inflow. Later, acoramidis and vutrisiran can be modelled as taking demand from tafamidis, from each other, or from newly unlocked patients depending on the scenario.
Event impact and driver attribution
The model shows what actually moved the result.
Diagnosis expansion, access shifts, same-class competition, cross-mechanism switching, launch waves, and future depleter disruption are treated as named events, then decomposed through driver attribution and Event Impact logic.
Separate patient truth from market truth — then reconcile
Patient truth and market truth are different questions.
PatientFlow answers how many patients become commercially reachable. MarketSimulator answers who captures that demand, from where, and under which mechanism, access, and sequencing assumptions. Together they create one auditable epidemiology-to-market decision system.
Founder-led, senior-led, and built around explicit modelling logic.
Look4Logic is a London-based, founder-led pharma forecasting and scenario architecture practice built around proprietary modelling IP: PatientFlow and MarketSimulator.
The work combines event-driven market simulation, pathway-based demand architecture, and management-ready forecast governance. The aim is not to look bigger than reality. The aim is to bring senior modelling judgment, explicit logic, and usable decision structure to live forecast problems.
Led by Sergey Ishin, Look4Logic brings together more than 15 years of client-serving forecasting and modelling work under the Look4Logic banner with 25+ years of broader pharma, medtech, and healthcare industry experience. Sergey combines an MD background together with deep forecasting, data science, and hands-on modelling execution capability. Current work includes multi-country forecasting and scenario cycles across more than 30 countries in complex pharma markets.
What this means in practice
- Senior-led work rather than a generic delivery factory
- Clear modelling language rather than blurred analytics claims
- Forecast governance and scenario structure that can work alongside existing BI, dashboarding, and reporting environments
- Management-ready outputs that fit familiar forecast-cycle workflows rather than forcing a software-first process
- Specialist depth for complex, multi-country pharma forecasting and scenario cycles
- Low-friction engagement shapes: focused pilots, live forecast problem reviews, and partner-enabled work
Start with a live forecast problem, not a generic demo request.
The strongest starting point is usually one live forecast problem, scenario question, audit need, or partner brief: a forecast that moved, a scenario that cannot be governed cleanly, a launch or access decision under pressure, or a specialist project that needs stronger modelling architecture behind it.
Choose the conversation
- Review a live forecast problem
- Discuss a forecast-governance pilot
- See a capability case
- Explore a partner fit
Contact Look4Logic
Email: info@look4logic.com
Location: London, UK
Confidential initial conversations are welcome.
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